Miles Mastrobuoni
30 PA · sample confidence ×0.27 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
xwOBA−.134
xBA−.130
xSLG−.166
wOBA−.081
SLG−.104
Chase rate+8.4%
AVG−.058
Whiff rate+4.8%
Sweet-spot rate−5.5%
In his favor / neutral
Strikeout rate+16.7%
Opposite-field rate−19.1%
Fly-ball rate+6.9%
Walk rate−3.0%
Pull rate+3.8%
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
17%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +8.4% vs last season
- • Walk rate −3.0% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +16.7% vs last season
- • Zone contact −0.5% vs last season(in-zone contact intact isolates the problem to decisions)
2. Approach change — selling out for pull-side power
11%Causal path: Swing decisions → Batted-ball profile → Actual outcomes
- • Pull rate +3.8% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +16.7% vs last season
- • AVG −.058 vs last season
Against / absent: d_la_avg (no data) · d_barrel_pct (no data)
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 72% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Pitch-recognition sessions (occluded video or spin-recognition reps)
Standard training for chase-rate problems; targets the decision, not the swing.
Controlled-take rounds in BP (swing only at middle-middle)
Classic zone-discipline reset; rebuilds the take muscle without mechanical interference.
Post-game zone chart review with the player
Show the chase locations from the data; awareness precedes adjustment.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.
- • No bat-tracking rows this season (public minimum: 50 competitive swings).