Michael Helman
35 PA · sample confidence ×0.3 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
Max exit velocity−9.0 mph
Hard-hit rate−17.0%
SLG−.155
xSLG−.120
Barrel rate−8.6%
Chase rate+10.3%
wOBA−.080
xwOBA−.054
AVG−.065
xBA−.037
In his favor / neutral
Pull rate−18.3%
Fly-ball rate+12.7%
Opposite-field rate+9.6%
Ground-ball rate−7.4%
Squared-up rate+6.1%
Avg launch angle+4.3°
Walk rate−3.5%
Swing rate+4.0%
Whiff rate−3.2%
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
17%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +10.3% vs last season
- • Walk rate −3.5% vs last season
- • Zone contact +1.6% vs last season(in-zone contact intact isolates the problem to decisions)
Against / absent: Strikeout rate −2.0% vs last season
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 83% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Pitch-recognition sessions (occluded video or spin-recognition reps)
Standard training for chase-rate problems; targets the decision, not the swing.
Controlled-take rounds in BP (swing only at middle-middle)
Classic zone-discipline reset; rebuilds the take muscle without mechanical interference.
Post-game zone chart review with the player
Show the chase locations from the data; awareness precedes adjustment.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.