Jerar Encarnacion
35 PA · sample confidence ×0.3 · full player page
Moving against him
In his favor / neutral
1. Results lag the process — batted-ball luck, not skill
17%Causal path: Contact quality → Expected outcomes → Actual outcomes
- • wOBA −.027 vs xwOBA(wOBA at least 20 points under xwOBA)
- • Bat speed +0.1 mph vs last season
- • Whiff rate −14.7% vs last season
Against / absent: Hard-hit rate −10.4% vs last season
2. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
14%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +11.0% vs last season
- • Zone contact +17.5% vs last season(in-zone contact intact isolates the problem to decisions)
Against / absent: Walk rate +1.1% vs last season · Strikeout rate −3.9% vs last season
3. Timing issue — late to the ball
12%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Swing length → Batted-ball profile → Expected outcomes
- • Opposite-field rate +12.1% vs last season
- • Avg exit velocity −3.3 mph vs last season
- • Bat speed +0.1 mph vs last season(bat speed intact rules out strength loss)
Against / absent: Ground-ball rate +0.0% vs last season · Whiff rate −14.7% vs last season · d_timing_late_pct (no data)
Mechanics themselves are unobserved in public data; inferred from the batted-ball fingerprint.
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 57% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.