Carter Jensen
365 PA · sample confidence ×0.96 · full player page
Moving against him
In his favor / neutral
1. Swing got longer — more power intent, more swing-and-miss
35%Causal path: Swing length → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Swing length +0.25 ft vs last season
- • Whiff rate +4.5% vs last season
- • Avg launch angle +13.2° vs last season
Against / absent: Pull rate −4.1% vs last season
2. Approach change — selling out for pull-side power
28%Causal path: Swing decisions → Batted-ball profile → Actual outcomes
- • Avg launch angle +13.2° vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +11.4% vs last season
- • AVG −.058 vs last season
Against / absent: Pull rate −4.1% vs last season · Barrel rate −11.5% vs last season
3. Timing issue — late to the ball
27%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Swing length → Batted-ball profile → Expected outcomes
- • Opposite-field rate +5.9% vs last season
- • Whiff rate +4.5% vs last season
- • Avg exit velocity −4.6 mph vs last season
Against / absent: Ground-ball rate −12.6% vs last season · Bat speed −1.0 mph vs last season · Late timing rate +0.0% vs last season
Mechanics themselves are unobserved in public data; inferred from the batted-ball fingerprint.
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 10% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.