Cal Raleigh
297 PA · sample confidence ×0.86 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
SLG−.282
xSLG−.194
wOBA−.132
Hard-hit rate−17.5%
xwOBA−.085
Barrel rate−8.4%
AVG−.084
xBA−.055
Avg exit velocity−3.2 mph
Max exit velocity−4.8 mph
Chase rate+5.6%
Squared-up rate−5.6%
In his favor / neutral
Strikeout rate+5.3%
Contact depth vs plate−3.1"
Pull rate−3.0%
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
44%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +5.6% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +5.3% vs last season
- • Zone contact −1.0% vs last season(in-zone contact intact isolates the problem to decisions)
Against / absent: Walk rate −1.7% vs last season
2. Genuine bat-speed decline (strength, health, or age)
38%Causal path: Strength / conditioning → Bat speed → Contact quality → Expected outcomes
- • Avg exit velocity −3.2 mph vs last season
- • Max exit velocity −4.8 mph vs last season
- • Hard-hit rate −17.5% vs last season
Against / absent: Bat speed −0.5 mph vs last season · Fast-swing rate −4.1% vs last season
Cannot distinguish strength loss from sub-clinical injury with public data — flag for training staff, do not self-diagnose.
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 18% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Pitch-recognition sessions (occluded video or spin-recognition reps)
Standard training for chase-rate problems; targets the decision, not the swing.
Controlled-take rounds in BP (swing only at middle-middle)
Classic zone-discipline reset; rebuilds the take muscle without mechanical interference.
Post-game zone chart review with the player
Show the chase locations from the data; awareness precedes adjustment.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.