Bryce Johnson
49 PA · sample confidence ×0.35 · full player page
Moving against him
In his favor / neutral
1. Genuine bat-speed decline (strength, health, or age)
21%Causal path: Strength / conditioning → Bat speed → Contact quality → Expected outcomes
- • Bat speed −1.3 mph vs last season
- • Avg exit velocity −9.3 mph vs last season
- • Max exit velocity −10.5 mph vs last season
- • Hard-hit rate −26.2% vs last season
- • Fast-swing rate −7.5% vs last season
Cannot distinguish strength loss from sub-clinical injury with public data — flag for training staff, do not self-diagnose.
2. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
16%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +10.8% vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +14.1% vs last season
Against / absent: Walk rate +2.5% vs last season · Zone contact −9.6% vs last season
3. Approach change — selling out for pull-side power
14%Causal path: Swing decisions → Batted-ball profile → Actual outcomes
- • Avg launch angle +9.7° vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +14.1% vs last season
- • AVG −.164 vs last season
Against / absent: Pull rate −11.4% vs last season · Barrel rate −5.0% vs last season
4. Timing issue — late to the ball
14%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Swing length → Batted-ball profile → Expected outcomes
- • Opposite-field rate +15.7% vs last season
- • Whiff rate +6.6% vs last season
- • Avg exit velocity −9.3 mph vs last season
Against / absent: Ground-ball rate +1.9% vs last season · Bat speed −1.3 mph vs last season · d_timing_late_pct (no data)
Mechanics themselves are unobserved in public data; inferred from the batted-ball fingerprint.
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 35% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.