Austin Slater
74 PA · sample confidence ×0.43 · full player page
Moving against him
In his favor / neutral
1. Genuine bat-speed decline (strength, health, or age)
19%Causal path: Strength / conditioning → Bat speed → Contact quality → Expected outcomes
- • Avg exit velocity −7.0 mph vs last season
- • Max exit velocity −7.7 mph vs last season
- • Hard-hit rate −29.8% vs last season
Against / absent: Bat speed +1.5 mph vs last season · Fast-swing rate +3.2% vs last season
Cannot distinguish strength loss from sub-clinical injury with public data — flag for training staff, do not self-diagnose.
2. Timing issue — late to the ball
17%Causal path: Swing/pitch mechanics → Swing length → Batted-ball profile → Expected outcomes
- • Opposite-field rate +12.6% vs last season
- • Avg exit velocity −7.0 mph vs last season
- • Bat speed +1.5 mph vs last season(bat speed intact rules out strength loss)
Against / absent: Ground-ball rate +0.9% vs last season · Whiff rate +0.8% vs last season · d_timing_late_pct (no data)
Mechanics themselves are unobserved in public data; inferred from the batted-ball fingerprint.
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 64% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.