Andy Ibáñez
26 PA · sample confidence ×0.25 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
wOBA−.194
xwOBA−.140
SLG−.265
Chase rate+21.6%
AVG−.152
xBA−.102
xSLG−.166
Sweet-spot rate−9.8%
Zone contact−3.2%
In his favor / neutral
Fly-ball rate+22.2%
Swing rate+14.4%
Pull rate+8.1%
Opposite-field rate−6.9%
Ground-ball rate−4.0%
Walk rate−2.4%
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
13%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +21.6% vs last season
- • Walk rate −2.4% vs last season
Against / absent: Strikeout rate −2.0% vs last season · Zone contact −3.2% vs last season
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 87% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Pitch-recognition sessions (occluded video or spin-recognition reps)
Standard training for chase-rate problems; targets the decision, not the swing.
Controlled-take rounds in BP (swing only at middle-middle)
Classic zone-discipline reset; rebuilds the take muscle without mechanical interference.
Post-game zone chart review with the player
Show the chase locations from the data; awareness precedes adjustment.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.
- • No bat-tracking rows this season (public minimum: 50 competitive swings).