Andrew McCutchen
83 PA · sample confidence ×0.46 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
xwOBA−.096
xBA−.094
xSLG−.150
Hard-hit rate−13.7%
SLG−.107
wOBA−.061
Max exit velocity−4.2 mph
Whiff rate+6.3%
Avg exit velocity−2.4 mph
AVG−.047
Zone contact−5.5%
Sweet-spot rate−5.7%
Squared-up rate−4.3%
Fast-swing rate−7.8%
Barrel rate−2.5%
In his favor / neutral
Pull rate−14.0%
Avg launch angle+8.2°
Fly-ball rate+9.4%
Strikeout rate+5.1%
Ground-ball rate−5.8%
Swing length−0.22 ft
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Genuine bat-speed decline (strength, health, or age)
22%Causal path: Strength / conditioning → Bat speed → Contact quality → Expected outcomes
- • Avg exit velocity −2.4 mph vs last season
- • Max exit velocity −4.2 mph vs last season
- • Hard-hit rate −13.7% vs last season
- • Fast-swing rate −7.8% vs last season
Against / absent: Bat speed −0.6 mph vs last season
Cannot distinguish strength loss from sub-clinical injury with public data — flag for training staff, do not self-diagnose.
2. Approach change — selling out for pull-side power
19%Causal path: Swing decisions → Batted-ball profile → Actual outcomes
- • Avg launch angle +8.2° vs last season
- • Strikeout rate +5.1% vs last season
- • AVG −.047 vs last season
Against / absent: Pull rate −14.0% vs last season · Barrel rate −2.5% vs last season
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 59% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Flag to strength and training staff for workload/strength review
Public data cannot separate strength loss, fatigue, or sub-clinical injury — that determination belongs to staff with medical context.
Track bat speed weekly against this baseline
Establishes whether the decline is a trend or a blip before intervening.
Video review, current vs last season, synced at contact
Compare side views at contact point. Public data flags the fingerprint; video confirms or rejects the mechanical story before anything is changed.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.