Addison Barger
28 PA · sample confidence ×0.26 · full player page
1 · What changed (2026 vs 2025)
Moving against him
SLG−.363
xSLG−.277
AVG−.198
xBA−.124
wOBA−.152
xwOBA−.076
Sweet-spot rate−10.5%
Chase rate+4.5%
In his favor / neutral
Fly-ball rate+20.9%
Walk rate+10.7%
Pull rate−12.4%
Zone contact+6.0%
Swing rate−5.5%
Ground-ball rate−5.0%
Opposite-field rate−3.8%
Whiff rate−3.0%
2 · Why — ranked hypotheses
1. Plate-discipline erosion — expanding the zone
12%Causal path: Swing decisions → Contact rate → Actual outcomes
- • Chase rate +4.5% vs last season
- • Zone contact +6.0% vs last season(in-zone contact intact isolates the problem to decisions)
Against / absent: Walk rate +10.7% vs last season · Strikeout rate +0.9% vs last season
Unexplained / unobserved causes: 88% — confidence is deliberately capped; public data cannot see every layer.
3 · What the coach does tomorrow
Pitch-recognition sessions (occluded video or spin-recognition reps)
Standard training for chase-rate problems; targets the decision, not the swing.
Controlled-take rounds in BP (swing only at middle-middle)
Classic zone-discipline reset; rebuilds the take muscle without mechanical interference.
Post-game zone chart review with the player
Show the chase locations from the data; awareness precedes adjustment.
Actions follow the top hypothesis; if video review rejects it, fall to the next.
Data gaps
- • Biomechanics (Hawkeye), TrackMan, and Blast Motion are team-internal — the mechanics layer is inferred from its downstream fingerprint, never observed.
- • No bat-tracking rows this season (public minimum: 50 competitive swings).